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On the Home Stretch – But it’s Still Anyone’s Game for Khan and Hall

By Matt Ingham

With the London mayoral elections right around the corner, campaigns are coming to a close, debates and hustings are done, manifestos are out, and promises have been made. So, with that in mind, it feels like the perfect time to have a look at this month’s Savanta voter intention polls!

graph showing London mayoral voting intention

Contrastingly from last month’s YouGov polls, it could be all to play for on Thursday, as the gap at the top has narrowed quite drastically. March was a month of confidence for current Labour mayor, Sadiq Khan, who was polling a whopping 24% ahead of his Conservative opponent, Susan Hall. But that may not be the case anymore, as it seems a turbulent month of campaigning from both parties has drastically narrowed the margins, leaving just a 13% difference. Khan, who is now polling at 46%, has been at the receiving end of tireless scrutiny from Hall, who has been quick to brand his 8 years of leadership as a failure. His unplanned ULEZ expansion, failure to reach policing targets, and failure to end homelessness (as he promised in his 2021 manifesto) have all been spotlighted by Hall, who claims to have a plan for ‘a safer London’.

However, Hall hasn’t been free from controversy herself, coming under fire for campaigning against a supposed secret ‘pay-per-mile’ scheme, which Khan has rebuked the validity of on countless occasions. Khan has admitted that he considered a pay-per-mile scheme in the past, after it was uncovered that he wrote about it in his 2023 book, ‘Breathe’, and invested £21million to explore ULEZ alternatives, including this scheme. However, he firmly denies any plans to introduce this scheme, telling BBC One viewers that it ‘isn’t needed’ since the ULEZ expansion, during the ‘A Mayor for London’ debate last Thursday. Hall is refusing to accept this, citing his inability to disclose the ULEZ expansion in his last manifesto; however, some are unhappy that she is focusing her campaign on scrapping something that doesn’t actually exist. Nonetheless, there is a clear rise in those who believe in what she has to offer, that being making London safer, and scrapping the ULEZ expansion, as her voter intention share has risen from 27% to 33% in the last month.

Sticking with pay-per-mile, Green Party candidate, Zoe Garbett, makes no effort to hide her plans to introduce a scheme of this sort to replace the current ULEZ system. During the ‘A Mayor for London’ debate last Thursday, she said she plans to ‘have a conversation with Londoners’ about bringing in a pay-per-mile scheme. Garbett’s plans focus on funding youth services, making London transport more accessible, and supporting rent controls. Last month, the Green candidate’s polls stood at 8%, they have fallen to 7% this month – 26% behind the Conservative candidate.

Liberal Democrat candidate, Rob Blackie, has also taken a small dip in voter intention polls, dropping from 10% in March, down to 9% this month. Whilst not performing too well in the polls, there doesn’t seem to be anything Blackie doesn’t know; in his self-appointed role as Khan’s personal fact checker, he’s been quick to hold the current power to account, highlighting his failings with policing, and promising to build more housing in order to get a grip on unaffordable rent prices. He currently stands 36% behind Khan.

Lifelong Conservative voter, Howard Cox, has decided to step away from his usual party and stand as the Reform UK candidate. Last year he told the BBC “I’m reluctantly standing as a candidate, but something needs to change. I am offering common sense popular policies.” He has promised to scrap the ULEZ, LTNs and 20mph zones, and make cycle lanes smaller. But, having consistently polled at 2% since March, his chances of making City Hall are remarkably slim.

Other candidates include Femy Amin (Animal Welfare Party), the infamous Count Binface (Independent), Amy Gallagher (Social Democratic Party), Tarun Ghulati (Independent), Andreas Michli (Independent), Brian Rose (London Real Party – Transform London), and Nick Scanlon (Britain First – No To Immigration). These 7 candidates account for 3% of all voter intention votes, a small increase from 2% last month.

As Thursday rapidly approaches, will Sadiq Khan come out triumphant and remain as Mayor of London for another term? Or could Susan Hall rally enough support to tip the ballot?

Voting in person this Thursday? Don’t forget to bring Voter ID, such as a passport or driving licence. Find your polling station by checking your poll card, or contact your local electoral services helpline.

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